One Desk for Energy Trade, Risk Management and Gas Management

In one line: Brent ticked up again. Ships in Hormuz are being hit harder than before, fewer tankers are willing to go in, and hopes of a quick peace deal keep fading.

• US stocks keep falling. American crude inventories are thought to have dropped for the third week running. With supply that tight at home and no end to the conflict in sight, prices have solid support underneath them.
• The attacks are getting worse. Strikes now hit ships’ engine rooms with more accuracy, doing far more damage than in the early weeks. One supertanker is reported to have hit a mine inside the strait. Fewer tankers are available, and more owners are refusing to send ships through at all.
• Less oil may be getting out than Washington says. Early ship-tracking figures suggest Gulf crude exports have slowed well below the numbers US officials quote. Nobody can say for sure how big the shortfall really is, and that uncertainty itself keeps the market nervous.
• One headline, two moves. Prices dipped on reports that a US–Iran deal was close, then bounced back once a diplomat in the talks said the reports were wrong. So many traders are betting on higher prices that any single story can swing the market sharply.

In one line: Asian spot LNG is at its highest since late 2022. Cargoes are being steered mid-voyage to whoever pays most, and Europe’s half-empty storage means that competition will last all winter.

• Europe’s storage gap is large. Storage across the continent is about 75% full, against a five-year average of 89% for this time of year. Germany, which has the most storage space in Europe, is one of the emptiest in percentage terms.
• Cargoes go to the highest bidder. Some US cargoes sailing for Asia have turned around mid-voyage for Europe, where buyers paid more. Other Atlantic cargoes have gone the opposite way, to Asian buyers offering bigger premiums. Arrivals into north-west Europe have slowed below their recent pace, so its storage is refilling more slowly.
• Asian demand keeps widening. Vietnamese and Thai buyers are running tenders for cargoes in the coming weeks. Bangladesh plans a big increase in its LNG import capacity, so regional demand will keep growing for years.
• Small reliefs. Chinese imports are lower than a year ago, which frees up a few cargoes. In Europe, prices dipped a little after hitting their highest in years, most likely profit-taking rather than any real improvement, and large factories say they will use even less gas if prices stay this high. A rare Qatari cargo went to Europe via the Red Sea, but that route is still the exception.
• Norway holds, with a wobble. Pipeline supply is running close to normal, but a major gas processing plant has gone down without warning, which adds short-term risk.